Eligibility and Voting:
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Nominations:
Glenn Close – Albert Nobbs as Albert Nobbs
- 6th nomination. Previously nominated for Dangerous Liaisons, Fatal Attraction, The Natural, The Big Chill, and The World According to Garp.
- Won 2 of 7 other major award nomination for her work in Albert Nobbs.
Who doesn’t love Glenn Close? She’s great… a little scary, but great! Although, this isn’t going to be her year. Albert Nobbs just doesn’t seem like a very interesting movie. And I will admit it… I haven’t seen it yet… and everything I think about watching it I decide to watch something else. But person taste aside, the statistics behind the scenes does not support a win for Glenn.
Viola Davis – The Help as Aibileen Clarke
- 2nd nomination. Previously nominated for Doubt in 2009, costarring Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Amy Adams, and Meryl Streep.
- Won 5 of 11 other major award nominations, including the Screen Actors Guild Award.
Viola is one of those actresses who has been around for a long time, popping up as a ‘day player’ in various television shows… and periodically in bit supporting roles in major movies, like in 1998 when she appeared in Out of Sight. She went on to star in a couple under-watched television shows and had a nice reoccurring gig on Law and Order: SVU. However I think it was her co-starring role Tom Selak’s Jesse Stone television movie series that really spotlighted her talent, which eventually led to more lucrative projects. I just adore actor stories like Viola’s and I am really excited for her… she has a real shot at the Oscar.
Rooney Mara – The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo as Lisbeth Salander
- 1st nomination. Also appeared in The Social Network.
- Won 1 of 3 other major award nomination: Best Breakthrough Performer from the National Board of Review.
Rooney has no chance of winning the Oscar, now… however her recognition as Breakthrough Performer by the NBR is totally merited. Rooney’s performance is EXACTLY what I imagined Lisbeth to be when I read the book. Although she will not win now… I could see her generating more nominations with the sequels… and an eventual win. Be patient Rooney… the character of Lisbeth isn’t a onetime only thing… its body of work… only you’re only a third of the way there.
Meryl Streep – The Iron Lady as Margaret Thatcher
- 17th nomination and 2 previous wins for Kramer vs. Kramer (1980) and Sophie’s Choice (1983).
- Won 6 of 20 other major award nomination, including the British Academy Award and the Golden Globe for Drama.
Although I really think Viola will win, there is no denying the power of Meryl. She has been nominated 13 times since 1983 and has yet to win her third Oscar. Plus, some of her wins, so far this year, have been huge… normal precursors for the person who normally ends up with the Oscar.
Michelle Williams – My Week with Marilyn as Marilyn Monroe
- 3rd nomination. Previously nominated for Blue Valentine and Brokeback Mountain.
- Won 11 of 23 other major award nominations, including the Golden Globe Comedy/Musical.
On paper, Michelle should be the clear favorite. She has been honored for her work as Marilyn Monroe all year and has certainly won more accolades than anyone else in her category… however she was not win the Screen Actors Guild Award… which is a big deal. We’ll discuss this more later.
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Snubs:
Tilda Swinton for We Need to Talk About Kevin. I’m not even going to stutter. Tilda’s snub was probably the worst of the year… even worse than The Adventures of Tintin not being nominated for Animated Feature. That said, Tilda was nominated for 19 other major awards this year… including the British Academy Award, Screen Actors Guild Award, and the Golden Globe. Although I love Meryl and Viola… I can’t understand why Tilda didn’t win… well… I guess I kind of understand. We Need to Talk About Kevin is a very rough movie… it’s not a happy movie… it is incredibly bleak and frightening… and that alone is probably what stood in her way. Especially against powerful feel-good movies like The Help and The Iron Lady. That said, Tilda has won 5 of those 19 nomination and frankly… she deserves more… hers was the most intense performance of the year.
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Oscar Trends:
Screen Actors Guild Award: For the last 17 years, twelve of the actresses winning the SAG Award went on to earn the Oscar. This gives Viola a 70.59% chance of winning.
But… what happened the 5 times the SAG winner lost the Oscar?
- 1994 – Jessica Lange (Blue Sky) beat SAG winner Jodie Foster (Nell). Jessica had won the Golden Globe, Susan Sarandon (The Client) won the BAFTA.
- 1999 – Hilary Swank (Boys Don’t Cry) beat SAG winner Annette Bening (American Beauty). Hilary won the Golden Globe. However, Annette won the BAFTA.
- 2002 – Nichole Kidman (The Hours) beat SAG winner Renee Zellweger (Chicago). Nichole won the Golden Globe and the BAFTA.
- 2007 – Marion Catillard (La Vie en Rose) beat SAG winner Julie Christy (Far From Her). Julie won the Golden Globe, however Marion won the BAFTA.
- 2008 – Kate Winslet (The Reader) beat SAG winner Meryl Streep (Doubt). Kate Winslet won the Golden Globe… but for Revolutionary Road, not The Reader. Kate also won the BAFTA.
Golden Globe Awards: In the same 17 year time frame… 10 of the Golden Globe Drama winning actresses have also won the Oscar. Essentially, giving Meryl Steep the same 58.82% chance of winning.
BAFTA: Only 7 of the last 17 winner of the BAFTA have also won the Oscar. That’s a 41.18% chance for Meryl.
Now, I know what you are probably thinking... Meryl won BOTH the Golden Globe and the BAFTA… what are her odds now? Well… in the last 17 years only 7 actresses have won both awards… and only 4 of them ended up with the Oscar. Giving Meryl a combined 57.14% chance of winning. So… what’s the pattern… there has to be a pattern.
Well… interestingly enough… The Florida Film Critics has an excellent record. They have a 53.33% accuracy rate. However, they gave their award to Michelle Williams this year… so it’s all whackadoodle it you ask me.
It’s going to be close… that’s all I have to say about it. But I think Meryl might surprise everyone… I just have this very strange feeling about it.
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Prediction:
- Winner: Meryl Streep – The Iron Lady as Margaret Thatcher
- Runner-Up: Viola Davis – The Help as Aibileen Clarke
- Wild Card: Michelle Williams – My Week with Marilyn as Marilyn Monroe
- Unlikely: Glenn Close – Albert Nobbs as Albert Nobbs
- No Chance in Hell: Rooney Mara – The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo as Lisbeth Salander
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