I’ve been totally overloaded, or perhaps I’ve just been a bit burnt out… but I am finally back with my Oscar Recap. A triumphant recap!
This is officially my third year making public Oscar predictions and in previous years I will admit it. I have fallen into the amateur/blow-hard movie critic category; only picking about half correctly.
However, this year, with my new non-emotional statistics based method of picking, I got a whopping 18 out of 24 categories correct and for the first time I’ve broken 100 points in my weighted pool… 105 out of 120 points to be exact and it is a new personal record:
| Year | Correct Picks | Weighted Points |
| 2012 | 18 of 24 | 105 of 120 |
| 2011 | 13 of 24 | 93 of 120 |
| 2010 | 12 of 24 | 98 of 120 |
As inconsequential as it may seem… this is a matter of pride because this year I bested many of the country’s top movie critics:
A.O. Scott from the New York Times and Richard Brody of the New Yorker only predicted 12 and 14 categories correct, respectively.
That said, I actually tied with the Los Angeles Times Golden Derby and based on what I have been able to find, I only lost to two major players:
Melena Ryzik from the New York Times and Ben Zauzmer, a student at Harvard University. Now, Melena was the big winner with 20 out of 24 predictions correct. However my loss to Ben is much more interesting. Without realizing it, Ben and I had actually adopted a very similar approach: calculating the statistical correlations between winners of other movie awards (like the Golden Globes and BAFTAs) and past Oscar winner. Ben only beat me by 1 pick and our picks are eerily similar. However, he only published 20 categories on his website… and of those 20 he only got 15 correct. And of those 20 I had gotten 16 correct. The 4 categories not posted are Make-Up and all three short films. I got 2 of those correct, so he must have gotten all 4. Crazy!
I feel like an Oscar rock star… and hopefully my success will give my little blog some clout.
Okay, so here is how my picks came together:
5 Point Picks, aka The ‘Winners’
The Artist = Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best original Score, and Costume Design. I think these were easy picks.
The Iron Lady = Best Make-Up and Best Actress. Both of these were last minute changes and I am very happen about them. For the longest time I thought Harry Potter would win Make-Up and Viola Davis of The Help would win Best Actress… however those picks did not sit well with me and I made last minute changes… the RIGHT changes!
Beginners = Christopher Plummer’s win for Supporting Actor was the easiest pick of the night.
The Help = Octavia Spencer’s win for Supporting Actress was the second easiest pick of the night.
Midnight in Paris = Woody Allen’s win for Original Screenplay was also expected. It’s such a good movie!
The Descendants = I figured these guys would pick up the Oscar for Adapted Screenplay, however I still think Moneyball should have won.
Rango = Best Animated Film. No contest.
A Separation = Best Foreign Film. No contest.
The Shore = Best Live Action Short!!! I love getting the short films right, even if I only get one. They are such crap shoots.
The Muppets = Best Original Song. This was my very first prediction of the year… and it was a solid win.
Hugo = Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, and Art Direction. I’m thrilled!
4 Point Picks, aka The ‘Runner-Ups’
I only missed 6 categories this year… however… oddly enough… none of my Runner-Up (2nd place) picks ended up winning! I totally missed the mark on the following six Oscar races.
3 Point Picks, aka The ‘Wild Cards’
Hugo = Cinematography and Visual Effects. I was very surprised at these… especially Visual Effects. This is the first time a movie using Visual Effects in a ‘Supporting Role’ as deemed by the Society for Visual Effects has won the Oscar. That said, I rewatched Hugo a few days ago with a keener eye. Although the visual effects are certainly supporting… they abound. They go far beyond the train crash and add so much substance; from the constant presence of clock works and steam, to the automaton dream sequence. The Visual Effect work in Hugo is simply brilliant and deserving. Also, I finally saw Tree of Life which I predicted would win Cinematography (based solely on statistics), however the movie is way too deep for me and found it unwatchable. I am very happy Hugo won.
Saving Face = Best Documentary Short. I should have known. After spending a year in Pakistan I should have picked it. I was already familiar with the doctors profiled in this film and the efforts were a pretty big deal while I was there… I just wasn’t sure how the short would resonate with Oscar voters. I guess it did. Opps.
The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore = Best Animated Short. Yeah, this was a total crapshoot category. I feel fortunate for, at least, getting 3 points out of the deal.
2 Point Pick, aka The ‘Unlikely’
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo = Best Film Editing. Who knew? The math was not supporting this back to back win for Angus Wall and Kirk Baxter. The guys from Harvard actually ranked them in last place! But they did boil down a enormous book into a strong narrative and that is talent.
1 Point Pick, aka ’No Change in Hell’
Undefeated = This year’s Best Documentary Feature gets the last laugh on me this year. And thankfully they’re the ONLY ‘No Chance in Hell’ pick that slipped through the cracks. Next year I intend to do better.
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