Boyhood is an interesting experiment. For those who do not know. Richard Linklater, the director of Dazed
and Confused, SubUrbia, The Newton Boys, and the
amazing Before Sunset trilogy, filmed Boyhood over the course
of 12 years using the same cast so they would age naturally, while telling the
story of a boy, starting at age 6, balancing his divorced parents and his own
life, until he goes off to college.
This film could have been a total mess, especially since mathematically,
based on the films runtime, each year of the story could only encompass about 15
minutes, on average. That said, there is
a coherent narrative and the performances by Patricia Arquette and Ethan Hawke
are quite good. Arquette is the front
runner for the Supporting Actress Oscar.
Boyhood won the Golden Globe for best Drama… and I am glad that
it is nominated for the Oscar… but I don’t really think it is best picture
material. As I said before, it is a
successful experiment, just like Birdman (directed by Alejandro
Gonzalez Inarritu). Birdman is also a
successful experiment; for completely different reasons. And, these two movies are the front runners
for Best Picture. Frankly, I’m not over
the moon for either of these films winning best picture, my favorite is still Whiplash
(which isn’t going to win).
Additionally, I think the directors of these two films,
Richard and Alejandro, are the front runners for Best Director; mainly because
their experiments were successful. And these
two are also, in my opinion, the front runners in the Original Screenplay category
as well. Whichever ends up with best
Picture doesn’t really matter… because I think these two movies will at least
walk away with 3 Oscars apiece.
EARLY OSCAR PREDICTIONS
Boyhood: Best Director,
Supporting Actress, Film Editing,
Birdman: Best Actor, Original
Screenplay, Best Sound, Cinematography.
I also wouldn’t be surprised of ‘Birdman’ walks away with the Oscars for
Sound Editing and Sound Mixing.
THE INFLUENCE OF
THE SCREEN ACTORS GUILD AWARDS
Tonight is the Screen Actors Guild Awards and what happens
tonight will be very telling as we move towards the Oscars.
Supporting Actress: (Patricia Arquette), In the 20 years SAG has
given out awards, 65% of the Supporting Actresses honored by SAG win the
Oscar. However, in more recent years,
this number is much higher; just looking at the last 10 years that percentage
jumps to 80%. Patricia already has the
Golden Globe, so a win tonight will pretty much lock her in for the Oscar.
Best Actor: (Michael Keaton), Again, looking at the
last 20 years of SAG, 80% of the winners in this category go on to win the
Oscar. But, historically, the Oscar
favors the actor who wins Golden Globe for Drama, which would make Eddie Redmayne
the statistical front runner. HOWEVER,
there are a number of statistical anomalies that makes tonight’s SAG Awards
very important.
First: 90% of the Golden
Globe for Drama winners, who also win the SAG Award, win the Oscar. Out of 11 occurrences, Russell Crowe is the
only actor to fall short, losing the Oscar to Denzel Washington (Training
Day), which is an anomaly unto itself.
But still… if Redmayne wins, he will be statistical front runner.
Second: 100% of the
Golden Globe for Comedy/Musical winners, who also win the SAG Award, win the
Oscar. This has happened three times in the last 20 years: Jack Nicholson for As Good As It Gets, Jamie
Foxx for Ray, and Jean Dujardin for The Artist. So a win for Keaton tonight makes him a lock
for the Oscar. Statistically speaking.
Third: What happens if neither Redmayne nor Keaton wins
tonight at the SAG Awards and a third actor emerges? Well,
good question… and this has happened six times in the last 20 years. And when this happens, the Oscar has favored
the winner of the SAG Award 4 out of 6 times: Roberto Benigni (Life
is Beautiful), Kevin Spacey (American Beauty), Sean Penn (Milk),
and Benicio del Toro (Traffic). However… Benicio won the Oscar for Supporting
Actor, not Lead Actor (which went to Russell Crowe for Gladiator).
The following scenarios are rare
and probably will not happen, but I think they are interesting:
On one occasion, the winner of the
Golden Globe for Drama (only) won the Oscar:
Sean Penn (Mystic River)… for some strange reason that year SAG gave
Johnny Depp their award for Pirates of the Caribbean… and there
was just no way he was going to win the Oscar for that.
Finally, in the last 20 years, these
four awards have gone to four different actors only once: Jack Nicholson (About Schmidt – Golden Globe
Drama), Richard Gere (Chicago - Golden Globe
Comedy/Musical), Daniel Day-Lewis (Gangs of New York – SAG), and Adrien
Brody (The Pianist – Oscar).
Please note… the Oscars LOVE an actor who plays the piano: Geoffrey Rush, Holly Hunter, and Jamie Foxx;
just to name the ones off the top of my head.
That said, the Oscars love actors who play someone physically
handicapped or mentally ill… and that list is very long… and favors Eddie
Redmayne.
Best Cast in a Motion
Picture: SAG only gives out awards
for acting, so this is the closest you can get to ‘Best Picture’. 57% of the time, the SAG Awards goes to a
film that did not win a Golden Globe.
And I think that will happen tonight.
My pick is Birdman. Here is a quick
break down of the Oscar odds based on the Golden Globe/SAG correlation,
depending on who might win tonight:
Boyhood: 100%
The Grand Budapest Hotel:
50%
Boyhood: 25%
Birdman: 25%
Birdman: 27%
Boyhood: 45%
Grand
Budapest: 9%
The
Imitation Game: 18%
When a third party wins the SAG, there is a possibility that
a fourth film will come out of nowhere to win the Oscar. When
this happens it is always a film that was nominated for (and lost) both the
Golden Globe for Drama and the SAG Award.
Which only leaves The Imitation Game or The
Theory of Everything. The former
is a more likely bet. However, even
though the odds are in favor of Boyhood… my Oscar pick will be Birdman
if it wins the SAG Award.
Well… enjoy the Screen Actors Guild Awards my friends!
Boyhood is an interesting experiment. For those who do not know. Richard Linklater, the director of Dazed
and Confused, SubUrbia, The Newton Boys, and the
amazing Before Sunset trilogy, filmed Boyhood over the course
of 12 years using the same cast so they would age naturally, while telling the
story of a boy, starting at age 6, balancing his divorced parents and his own
life, until he goes off to college.
This film could have been a total mess, especially since mathematically,
based on the films runtime, each year of the story could only encompass about 15
minutes, on average. That said, there is
a coherent narrative and the performances by Patricia Arquette and Ethan Hawke
are quite good. Arquette is the front
runner for the Supporting Actress Oscar.
Boyhood won the Golden Globe for best Drama… and I am glad that
it is nominated for the Oscar… but I don’t really think it is best picture
material. As I said before, it is a
successful experiment, just like Birdman (directed by Alejandro
Gonzalez Inarritu). Birdman is also a
successful experiment; for completely different reasons. And, these two movies are the front runners
for Best Picture. Frankly, I’m not over
the moon for either of these films winning best picture, my favorite is still Whiplash
(which isn’t going to win).
Additionally, I think the directors of these two films,
Richard and Alejandro, are the front runners for Best Director; mainly because
their experiments were successful. And these
two are also, in my opinion, the front runners in the Original Screenplay category
as well. Whichever ends up with best
Picture doesn’t really matter… because I think these two movies will at least
walk away with 3 Oscars apiece.
EARLY OSCAR PREDICTIONS
Boyhood: Best Director,
Supporting Actress, Film Editing,
Birdman: Best Actor, Original
Screenplay, Best Sound, Cinematography.
I also wouldn’t be surprised of ‘Birdman’ walks away with the Oscars for
Sound Editing and Sound Mixing.
THE INFLUENCE OF
THE SCREEN ACTORS GUILD AWARDS
Tonight is the Screen Actors Guild Awards and what happens
tonight will be very telling as we move towards the Oscars.
Supporting Actress: (Patricia Arquette), In the 20 years SAG has
given out awards, 65% of the Supporting Actresses honored by SAG win the
Oscar. However, in more recent years,
this number is much higher; just looking at the last 10 years that percentage
jumps to 80%. Patricia already has the
Golden Globe, so a win tonight will pretty much lock her in for the Oscar.
Best Actor: (Michael Keaton), Again, looking at the
last 20 years of SAG, 80% of the winners in this category go on to win the
Oscar. But, historically, the Oscar
favors the actor who wins Golden Globe for Drama, which would make Eddie Redmayne
the statistical front runner. HOWEVER,
there are a number of statistical anomalies that makes tonight’s SAG Awards
very important.
First: 90% of the Golden
Globe for Drama winners, who also win the SAG Award, win the Oscar. Out of 11 occurrences, Russell Crowe is the
only actor to fall short, losing the Oscar to Denzel Washington (Training
Day), which is an anomaly unto itself.
But still… if Redmayne wins, he will be statistical front runner.
Second: 100% of the
Golden Globe for Comedy/Musical winners, who also win the SAG Award, win the
Oscar. This has happened three times in the last 20 years: Jack Nicholson for As Good As It Gets, Jamie
Foxx for Ray, and Jean Dujardin for The Artist. So a win for Keaton tonight makes him a lock
for the Oscar. Statistically speaking.
Third: What happens if neither Redmayne nor Keaton wins
tonight at the SAG Awards and a third actor emerges? Well,
good question… and this has happened six times in the last 20 years. And when this happens, the Oscar has favored
the winner of the SAG Award 4 out of 6 times: Roberto Benigni (Life
is Beautiful), Kevin Spacey (American Beauty), Sean Penn (Milk),
and Benicio del Toro (Traffic). However… Benicio won the Oscar for Supporting
Actor, not Lead Actor (which went to Russell Crowe for Gladiator).
The following scenarios are rare
and probably will not happen, but I think they are interesting:
On one occasion, the winner of the
Golden Globe for Drama (only) won the Oscar:
Sean Penn (Mystic River)… for some strange reason that year SAG gave
Johnny Depp their award for Pirates of the Caribbean… and there
was just no way he was going to win the Oscar for that.
Finally, in the last 20 years, these
four awards have gone to four different actors only once: Jack Nicholson (About Schmidt – Golden Globe
Drama), Richard Gere (Chicago - Golden Globe
Comedy/Musical), Daniel Day-Lewis (Gangs of New York – SAG), and Adrien
Brody (The Pianist – Oscar).
Please note… the Oscars LOVE an actor who plays the piano: Geoffrey Rush, Holly Hunter, and Jamie Foxx;
just to name the ones off the top of my head.
That said, the Oscars love actors who play someone physically
handicapped or mentally ill… and that list is very long… and favors Eddie
Redmayne.
Best Cast in a Motion
Picture: SAG only gives out awards
for acting, so this is the closest you can get to ‘Best Picture’. 57% of the time, the SAG Awards goes to a
film that did not win a Golden Globe.
And I think that will happen tonight.
My pick is Birdman. Here is a quick
break down of the Oscar odds based on the Golden Globe/SAG correlation,
depending on who might win tonight:
Boyhood: 100%
The Grand Budapest Hotel:
50%
Boyhood: 25%
Birdman: 25%
Birdman: 27%
Boyhood: 45%
Grand
Budapest: 9%
The
Imitation Game: 18%
When a third party wins the SAG, there is a possibility that
a fourth film will come out of nowhere to win the Oscar. When
this happens it is always a film that was nominated for (and lost) both the
Golden Globe for Drama and the SAG Award.
Which only leaves The Imitation Game or The
Theory of Everything. The former
is a more likely bet. However, even
though the odds are in favor of Boyhood… my Oscar pick will be Birdman
if it wins the SAG Award.
Well… enjoy the Screen Actors Guild Awards my friends!
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