Finally, The Oscars Recap

I’ve been totally overloaded, or perhaps I’ve just been a bit burnt out… but I am finally back with my Oscar Recap.  A triumphant recap!

This is officially my third year making public Oscar predictions and in previous years I will admit it.  I have fallen into the amateur/blow-hard movie critic category; only picking about half correctly. 

However, this year, with my new non-emotional statistics based method of picking, I got a whopping 18 out of 24 categories correct and for the first time I’ve broken 100 points in my weighted pool… 105 out of 120 points to be exact and it is a new personal record:

Year	Correct Picks	Weighted Points
2012	18 of 24	105 of 120
2011	13 of 24	93 of 120
2010	12 of 24	98 of 120

As inconsequential as it may seem… this is a matter of pride because this year I bested many of the country’s top movie critics:

A.O. Scott from the New York Times and Richard Brody of the New Yorker only predicted 12 and 14 categories correct, respectively.

That said, I actually tied with the Los Angeles Times Golden Derby and based on what I have been able to find, I only lost to two major players:

Melena Ryzik from the New York Times and Ben Zauzmer, a student at Harvard University.  Now, Melena was the big winner with 20 out of 24 predictions correct.  However my loss to Ben is much more interesting.  Without realizing it, Ben and I had actually adopted a very similar approach: calculating the statistical correlations between winners of other movie awards (like the Golden Globes and BAFTAs) and past Oscar winner.  Ben only beat me by 1 pick and our picks are eerily similar.  However, he only published 20 categories on his website… and of those 20 he only got 15 correct.  And of those 20 I had gotten 16 correct.  The 4 categories not posted are Make-Up and all three short films.  I got 2 of those correct, so he must have gotten all 4.  Crazy!

I feel like an Oscar rock star… and hopefully my success will give my little blog some clout.

Okay, so here is how my picks came together:

5 Point Picks, aka The ‘Winners’

The Artist = Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best original Score, and Costume Design.  I think these were easy picks.

The Iron Lady  = Best Make-Up and Best Actress.  Both of these were last minute changes and I am very happen about them.  For the longest time I thought Harry Potter would win Make-Up and Viola Davis of The Help would win Best Actress… however those picks did not sit well with me and I made last minute changes… the RIGHT changes!

Beginners = Christopher Plummer’s win for Supporting Actor was the easiest pick of the night.

The Help = Octavia Spencer’s win for Supporting Actress was the second easiest pick of the night.

Midnight in Paris = Woody Allen’s win for Original Screenplay was also expected.  It’s such a good movie!

The Descendants = I figured these guys would pick up the Oscar for Adapted Screenplay, however I still think Moneyball should have won.

Rango = Best Animated Film.  No contest.

A Separation = Best Foreign Film.  No contest.

The Shore = Best Live Action Short!!!  I love getting the short films right, even if I only get one.  They are such crap shoots. 

The Muppets = Best Original Song.  This was my very first prediction of the year… and it was a solid win.

Hugo = Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, and Art Direction.  I’m thrilled!

4 Point Picks, aka The ‘Runner-Ups’

I only missed 6 categories this year… however… oddly enough… none of my Runner-Up (2^nd place) picks ended up winning!  I totally missed the mark on the following six Oscar races.

3 Point Picks, aka The ‘Wild Cards’

Hugo = Cinematography and Visual Effects.  I was very surprised at these… especially Visual Effects.  This is the first time a movie using Visual Effects in a ‘Supporting Role’ as deemed by the Society for Visual Effects has won the Oscar.  That said, I rewatched Hugo a few days ago with a keener eye.  Although the visual effects are certainly supporting… they abound.  They go far beyond the train crash and add so much substance; from the constant presence of clock works and steam, to the automaton dream sequence.  The Visual Effect work in Hugo is simply brilliant and deserving.  Also, I finally saw Tree of Life which I predicted would win Cinematography (based solely on statistics), however the movie is way too deep for me and found it unwatchable.  I am very happy Hugo won.

Saving Face = Best Documentary Short.  I should have known.  After spending a year in Pakistan I should have picked it.  I was already familiar with the doctors profiled in this film and the efforts were a pretty big deal while I was there… I just wasn’t sure how the short would resonate with Oscar voters.  I guess it did.  Opps.

The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore = Best Animated Short.  Yeah, this was a total crapshoot category.  I feel fortunate for, at least, getting 3 points out of the deal.

2 Point Pick, aka The ‘Unlikely’

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo = Best Film Editing.  Who knew?  The math was not supporting this back to back win for Angus Wall and Kirk Baxter.  The guys from Harvard actually ranked them in last place!  But they did boil down a enormous book into a strong narrative and that is talent.

1 Point Pick, aka ’No Change in Hell’

Undefeated = This year’s Best Documentary Feature gets the last laugh on me this year.  And thankfully they’re the ONLY ‘No Chance in Hell’ pick that slipped through the cracks.  Next year I intend to do better.

Final Pre-Oscar Post

Okay, this is it.  My final post!  Enjoy the show everyone!  It might take me a few days to compile my thoughts… however; you can keep me accountable by taking a gander at my final list of Oscar predictions!  Click here!

84th Academy Awards – ‘Best Picture’

Eligibility and Voting:

A Reminder List of all eligible motion pictures shall be sent with a nominations ballot to all active and life members of the Academy who shall vote in the order of their preference for not more than five pictures.

The pictures receiving the highest number of votes shall become the nominations for final voting for the Best Picture award.  There may not be more than ten nor fewer than five nominations; however, no picture shall be nominated that receives less than five percent of the total votes cast.

The individual(s) who shall be credited for Academy Award purposes must have screen credit of “producer” or “produced by.”  Persons with screen credits of executive producer, co-producer, associate producer, line producer, produced in association with or any other credit shall not receive nominations or Academy statuettes.  The nominees will be those three or fewer producers who have performed the major portion of the producing functions.  The Producers Branch Executive Committee will designate the qualifying producer nominees for each of the nominated pictures.  The committee has the right, in what it determines to be a rare and extraordinary circumstance, to name any additional qualified producer as a nominee.

Final voting for the Best Picture award shall be restricted to active and life Academy members.

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Nominations:

The Artist – Thomas Langmann

• 1^st nomination for Thomas.
• 10 total nominations for the film: Art Direction, Cinematography, Costume Design, Directing, Film Editing, Original Score, Leading Actor, Supporting Actress, and Screenplay.
• Won 114 of 20 other major awards for Best Film, including the BAFTA and Golden Globe Comedy/Musical.
• Recicient of a Special Award from the American Film Institute (AFI), who only inducts 10 AMERICAN films each year.
• EGOTing Rank: #2

The Artist is going to win the Oscar for Best Picture.  There is simply nothing like it.  This is a perfectly crafted that proves you don’t need to hear the actors voice to have a compelling story or a strong performance.  This isn’t a film being honored just because it went against the grain, anyone can make a movie that goes against the normal… but is takes a masterful film to go against those normal, challenge its audience and succeed.

The Descendants – Jim Burke, Jim Taylor and Alexander Payne

• 1^st nomination both Jim’s and Alexander for Producing.  They previously produced Cedar Rapids and The Savages.
• 5 total nominations for the film: Directing, Film Editing, Leading Actor, and Adapted Screenplay.
• Won 6 of 19 other major award nominations for Best Film, including the Golden Globe for Drama.
• Named to the AFI’s list of Movies of the Year.
• EGOTing Rank: #9

I liked this film a lot, however for being a Contemporary Dramatic-Comedy, which is my favorite genre, it ranked lower than three films of the same genre on my person list for the year: Win Win, Crazy Stupid Love, and 50/50.  Perhaps I’m being too hard on this film… you see, I adopt Alexander Payne and Sideways ranked in the #1 spot on my 2004 list… and I still think Sideways is the best film he’s ever made.  So I’m having a hard time accepting, what I would call, an “inferior” work of Payne’s might win Best Picture.  However, I’m making an unfair comparison.  I am comparing Payne to Payne an this specific film to the other nominees.  All that said, I do believe The Descendants will be the Runner-Up.

Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close – Scott Rudin

• 5^th Producing nomination for Scott.  He won for No Country for Old Men and was nominated for The Hours, The Social Network, and True Grit.
• 2 total nominations for the film: Supporting Actor
• Nominated for 2 other major awards for Best Picture.
• EGOTing Rank: #8

I really like this film.  Perhaps it’s because I read the book first and unlike other critics, I liked how the sentimentality was used to drive the film.  When it comes to 9/11… I would much rather watch movies like Extremely Loud or Reign on Me, movies about the healing process, rather than movies like World Trade Center or United 93, movies about the tragedy itself.  I believe the latter movies will play better for audiences in the future who will need a better understanding of what happened… but for me… someone who lived through it in my own way… I want to see movies about healing.

The Help – Brunson Green, Chris Columbus and Michael Barnathan

• 1^st Producing nomination for Brunson, Chris, and Michael.  Michael has Produced three of the Harry Potter films, both Night at the Museum films, and the Percy Jackson series.  Chris directed The Goonies… what more is there in life?
• 4 total nominations for the film: Leading Actress and two Supporting Actresses.
• Won 1 of 4 other major award nominations for Best Picture.  However, the won 6 of 9 other major award nominations for Best Ensemble… which is this films bread and butter.
• Named to the AFI’s list of Movies of the Year.
• EGOTing Rank: #6

What can I say?  This is a great film.  It won’t win… here and now… but in an alternate universe where The Artist was never made… The Help wins in a landslide.

Hugo – Graham King and Martin Scorsese

• 3^rd nomination for Graham who won for The Departed after being nominated for The Aviator.
• 1^st Producing nomination for Martin (Believe it or NOT!)
• 11 total nominations for the film: Art Direction, Cinematography, Costume Design, Directing, Film Editing, Original Score, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects, and Adapted Screenplay.
• On 2 of 14 other major award nominations.
• Named to the AFI’s list of Movies of the Year.
• EGOTing Rank: #12

Finally, a real family movie!  Martin made a complicated and nuanced live-action film that I enjoyed immensely that I could actually take my six year-old son to… who enjoyed the film just as much as I did!  Bravo!

Midnight in Paris – Letty Aronson and Stephen Tenenbaum

• 1^st nomination for both Letty and Stephen.  Letty has been producing all of Woody Allen’s films since Bullets over Broadway in 1994.  Stephen joined the team in 2001 with The Curse of the Jade Scorpion. 
• 4 total nominations for the film: Art Direction, Directing, and Original Screenplay.
• Nominated for 8 other major awards as Best Picture.
• Named to the AFI’s list of Movies of the Year.
• EGOTing Rank: #11

I’m pretty sure I’ve been every Woody Allen film… except maybe one or two.  And I have to say… this is probably his finest work.  I thought it was great.  It’s certainly the best movie he’s made in the last 15 years.  Thanks Woody!

Moneyball – Michael De Luca, Rachel Horowitz, and Brad Pitt

• 2^nd nomination for Michael who was nominated last year for The Social Network.
• 1^st nomination for Rachel and Brad.  Rachel previously Produced About Schmidt and Next Stop Wonderland.  Brad, believe it or not, Produced Kick-Ass!
• 6 total nomination for the film: Film Editing, Sound Mixing, Leading Actor, Supporting Actor, and Adapted Screenplay.
• Nominated for 5 other major film awards as Best Picture.
• Named to the AFI’s list of Movies of the Year.
• EGOTing Rank: #3

I gave this movie a #3 ranking for the year… I think that says it all.  I’m really bummed that it’s not getting more awards, but I’m not surprised.  It’s a solid film, but not won that is going to win big.  That said, I am surprised that it has lost its footing in the Adapted Screenplay category.  I was not expecting it to lose.  I hope it doesn’t… but I think it will. 

The Tree of Life – Dede Gardner, Sarah Green, Grant Hill and Bill Pohlad

• 2^nd nomination for Grant, who also Produced The Thin Red Line.
• 1^st nomination for Dede (A Mighty Heart), Sarah (Frida), and Bill (Into the Wild).
• 3 total nominations for the film: Cinematography and Directing.
• Won 5 of 15 other major award nominations for Best Picture.
• Named to the AFI’s list of Movies of the Year.
• EGOTing Rank: Film Not Yet Ranked

I’m ashamed.  I haven’t seen this film year.  I’m going to watch it as soon as I post this final post… I might amend later.

War Horse – Steven Spielberg and Kathleen Kennedy

• 7^th nomination for Steven, one win for Schindler’s List, also nominated for ET, The Color Purple, Saving Private Ryan, Munich, and Letter from Iwo Jima.
• 7^th nomination for Kathleen.  4^th with Steven: ET, The Color Purple, Munich.  And nominated 3 other times for The Sixth Sense, Seabiscuit, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button,
• 6 total nomination for the film: Art Direction, Cinematography, Original Score, Sound Editing, and Sound Mixing.
• Nominated for 2 other major film awards for Best Picture.
• Named to the AFI’s list of Movies of the Year.
• EGOTing Rank: #27

Listen… I don’t know what to say.  I don’t really understand why it’s up for Best Picture.  The only real compliment I can give it is that it’s better than Amistad and Indiana Jones and the Crystal Skulls.  Which I guess, is kind of the opposite of a compliment.  I just don’t understand.  Going into the nominations I was really expecting to see The Adventures of Tintin thrown around more… so to see War Horse just doesn’t make sense to me.

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Snubs:

Listen, if you scroll back up and look at the EGOTing Rank for each nominated film, you’ll see that the Oscar Nominations are all over the map… if you have a similar taste to mine.  I won’t bore you too much… but here are the movies that made my top ten list, but didn’t get an Oscar nomination:

#1 – Win Win

#4 – Super 8

#5 – Crazy Stupid Love

#7 – 50/50

#10 – The Adventure of Tintin

For a complete ranked list of all the movies I saw in 2011, click here.

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Oscar Trends:

I’ve been babbling on for week… the winning film is pretty clear this year… so I’ll just shut up and finish it.

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Prediction: 

• Winner:  The Artist – Thomas Langmann
• Runner-Up:  The Descendants – Jim Burke, Jim Taylor and Alexander Payne
• Wild Card: The Help – Brunson Green, Chris Columbus and Michael Barnathan
• Unlikely:  The Tree of Life – Dede Gardner, Sarah Green,Grant Hill and Bill Pohlad
• No Chance in Hell:
• Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close – Scott Rudin
• Hugo – Graham King and Martin Scorsese
• Midnight in Paris – Letty Aronson and Stephen Tenenbaum
• Moneyball – Michael De Luca, Rachel Horowitz, and Brad Pitt
• War Horse – Steven Spielberg and Kathleen Kennedy  

84th Academy Awards – ‘Best Director’

Eligibility and Voting:

A Reminder List of all eligible motion pictures shall be sent with a nominations ballot to all members of the Directors Branch, who shall vote in the order of their preference for not more than five productions.

The five motion pictures receiving the highest number of votes shall become the nominations for final voting for the Directing award.

Final voting for the Directing award shall be restricted to active and life Academy members.

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Nominations:

Woody Allen – Midnight in Paris

• 8^th nomination for Directing, won for Annie Hall.  Also nominated for Bullets over Broadway, Crimes and Misdemeanors, Hannah and Her Sisters, Broadway Danny Rose, and Interiors.
• Nominated for 9 other major awards for Directing.

This is probably my all-time favorite Woody Allen movie.  With Bullets over Broadway and Mighty Aphrodite close behind.  This movie is perfect mix of what Woody does best: a bleak look at modern anxieties and the fantasy of longing for something amazing.  I love it!

Michel Hazanavicius – The Artist

• 1^st nomination for Directing.
• Won 7 of 19 other major award nominations, including the BAFTA and Directors Guild of America Award.

Yeah… I’m pretty sure he’s going to win… however.  There is a lot of competition this year.  The Academy loves feel good films like this… however, Roberto Benigni did not win Best Director… only Best Actor and Foreign Language Film.  I am pretty sure The Artist will win Best Picture… but that doesn’t mean Michel will win Director.

Terrence Malick – The Tree of Life

• 2^nd nomination for Directing.  Previously nominated for The Thin Red Line.
• Won 8 of 13 other major award nomination for Directing.

Terrence is totally the wild card here… and honestly, The Tree of Life is the only one here I haven’t seen yet.  A man only has so much time.  I’m going to try my best to see it before Sunday night.  Oye! 

Alexander Payne – The Descendants

• 2^nd nomination for Directing.  Previously nominated for Sideways.
• Won 1 of 9 other major award nominations for Directing.

Writing is going to be Alexander’s bread and butter this year.  He’s probably going to win over Moneyball in the Adapted Screenplay category… and that’s probably the best the film with fare.

Martin Scorsese – Hugo

• 7^th nomination for Directing.  Previously nominated for Raging Bull, The Last Temptations of Christ, Goodfellas, Gangs of New York, The Aviator, and he finally won in 2007 for The Departed.
• Won 6 of 21 other major award nominations for Directing, including the Golden Globe.

Martin has a real shot... at least a better shot than anyone to take down The Artist... but I don't think it's going to happen. 

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Snubs:

Directing is a very subjective category.  It’s really hard to judge who was left out when there are 5 solid filmmakers in the mix. 

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Oscar Trends:

In the 61 years the Directors Guild of America has been giving out their award for Best Direction in a Feature Film… only 8 have no gone on to win the Oscar.  So, that gives Michel an 86.8% chance of winning.  How can you argue that kind of math?

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Prediction: 

• Winner:  Michel Hazanavicius – The Artist
• Runner-Up:  Martin Scorsese – Hugo
• Wild Card: Terrence Malick – The Tree of Life
• Unlikely:  Woody Allen – Midnight in Paris
• No Chance in Hell:  Alexander Payne – The Descendants

84th Academy Awards – ‘Best Actor’

Eligibility and Voting:

I covered the eligibility and voting for acting awards in my Best Supporting Actress post.

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Nominations:

Demián Bichir – A Better Life as Carlos Galindo

• 1^st nomination.  Previously in Che and Weeds.
• Nominated for 4 other major awards.

I love Demian.  I first am a HUGE fan of Weeds.  And the edition of Damian in Season 4 was epic.  I’m so happy to see him succeeding in his other endeavors.  However, he has little chance of winning.

George Clooney – The Descendants as Matt King

• 4^th nomination for acting, having previously won for his Supporting Role in Syriana.  He has also been nominated for Leading Actor twice in Michael Clayton and Up in the Air.
• Won 8 of 21 other major award nominations.

Next to last years The American this is probably one of George’s finest performances.  This movie gives us an understated George who doesn’t really know what to say, do… or even think about all the things going on around him.  He has to balance negotiating a multimillion dollar land deal, while carrying for his dying wife, while processing the knowledge of her infidelity, while learning to be a parent… and the weight of all these things can be seen on his face the whole movie.  A couple of my friends have criticized his performance as “same old George… all he has to do is shed one tear and everyone is ready to give him an Oscar.”  I personally don’t agree.  Throughout the movie George kept it all together… and that tear was what he was working towards the whole time… the realization... that kiss…  throughout it all… he had to say goodbye to someone he loved.

Jean Dujardin – The Artist as George Valentin

• 1^st nomination.
• Won 9 of 21 other major award nominations, including the Cannes Film Festival, BAFTA Award, Screen Actors Guild Award, and the Golden Globe for Comedy/Musical.

Jean’s performance in The Artist is simple magical.  For an actor to used every tool at his disposal, except his voice, and still push out a fully realized performance is amazing.  They should probably start engraving the Oscar now… because it is going to say Jean Dujardin.

Gary Oldman – Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy as George Smiley

• 1^st nomination.  Also seen in Sid and Nancy, JFK, Dracula, Leon: The Professional, Immortal Beloved, and most recently known as Sirius Blakc and Commissioner Gordon in the Harry Potter and Chris Nolan’s Batman series’ respectively. 

Won 1 of 11 other major award nominations.

Can you believe it?!?  This is only Gary’s FIRST Oscar nomination!!!  I love love love the fact that he is nominated.  He is such a chameleon, which probably works again him most awards seasons, since it is hard to place him from one film to another.  Gary Oldman is a genius.  And for him to be nominated now, for this film, is awesome.  Gary is best known for playing big personalities… characters that are bigger than life.  However, this time… he turns the table on us completely.  George Smiley is one of the top British intelligence officers in MI-6.  A Spy.  You would think he would be the kind of larger than life character Gary Oldman normally plays with ease… well… no.  Instead Gary plays him as a cold calculating introvert… who feels personal and emotional pain when it comes to the simpler things in life.  There are moments of sheer brilliance in this film… most often moments a normal movie goer would overlook or dismissing.  There are times in this film where Gary’s character knows he is alone and lets his guard down, shown mainly as a change in posture, and that split second change gives the audience a glimpse into what George Smiley is really thinking.  “Being a spy is draining.”  Finally getting to see Gary pull out that kind of subtle performance was simply magical to watch.

Brad Pitt – Moneyball as Billy Beane

• 3^rd nomination for acting.  Previously nominated for 12 Monkeys and The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.
• Won 4 of 16 other major award nominations.  3 of those 4 were for his body of work this year, including Tree of Life.

What can I say about Brad?  I love him.  He’s like George.  He just makes it look easy all the time.  So easy that it almost seems anyone could do it.  But honestly… no.  Brad is just one of those really talented guys.  He wasn’t perfect when his career started… but he gets better and better and now he’s one of the actors I love to watch.  Moneyball is my personal favorite performance by Brad.  But… there are too many great performances this year… the Oscar will elude him yet again.

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Snubs:

Paul Giamatti for Win Win.  This is still my favorite movie of the year and Paul is still my favorite performance of the year.  I am unapologetic about it too.

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Oscar Trends:

Listen.  I know I go a little over board on the statistics sometimes… especially on my post about Best Actress.  However, that one is going to be close to call.  This one isn’t.  Even if Paul Giamatti had been nominated, I would have never picked him for the win.  Jean Dujardin is the clear winner here.  So there is no reason to run the numbers.

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Prediction: 

• Winner:  Jean Dujardin – The Artist as George Valentin
• Runner-Up:  George Clooney – The Descendants as Matt King
• Wild Card: Brad Pitt – Moneyball as Billy Beane
• Unlikely:  Gary Oldman – Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy as George Smiley
• No Chance in Hell:  Demián Bichir – A Better Life as Carlos Galindo