What We Learned from the Screen Actors Guild Awards

What did we learn from the SAG Awards?

Well… for starters, Turner Broadcasting apparently loves Emma Stone.  Seriously.  Turner Broadcasting simulcasted the Guild Awards on both TNT and TBS... 

And prior to the awards on TNT they aired, The Help, which started SAG nominee Emma Stone and SAG winner Viola Davis.  TNT is also airing The Help at midnight, after they rebroadcast the awards.

On TBS, before the awards they aired Ghosts of Girlfriends Past, which stars SAG nominees Emma Stone and Matthew McConaughey.  And AFTER the awards they are airing Crazy, Stupid, Love.   A movie I absolutely adore… and it stars… you guessed it, SAG nominee Emma Stone and Steve Carrell, and SAG winner Julianne Moore.

Technically, Emma Stone did win a SAG award as part of the most outstanding ensemble in a motion picture for Birdman.  And… it is an Emma Stone fiesta over at Turner Broadcasting today.  

But… I digress… let’s get down to business.

The SAG awards directly influence the Oscars.  And this needs to be said before I continue… the Academy loves actors who play characters with physical handicaps, mental handicaps, musicians, addicts, and characters dying of diseases.  No, I am not trying to be crass… so let’s test the theory:

Best Actor:

1945 – Ray Milland,  The Lost Weekend – Alcoholic

1951 – Humphrey Bogart – The African Queen – Alcoholic

1965 – Lee Marvin – Cat Ballou – Alcoholic

And now is when it gets good and my theory becomes more frequent. 

1975 – Jack Nicholson – One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest – Mentally Ill

1976 – Peter Finch – Network – Nervous Breakdown

1977 – Richard Dreyfuss – The Goodbye Girl – Musician

1978 – Jon Voight -  Coming Home – Cripple

1983 – Robert Duvall – Tender Mercies – Musician

1984 – F. Murray Abraham – Amadeus - Musician

1988 – Dustin Hoffman – Rain Man – Autistic

1989 – Daniel Day-Lewis – My Left Foot – Physically Handicapped.

1991 – Anthony Hopkins – The Silence of the Lambs – Psychotic

1992 – Al Pacino – Sent of a Woman – Blind

1993 – Tom Hanks – Philadelphia – Dying of AIDS

1994 – Tom Hanks – Forrest Gump – Slow

1995 – Nicolas Cage – Leaving Las Vegas – Alcoholic

1996 – Geoffrey Rush – Shine – Mentally-Ill Musician

1997 – Jack Nicholson – As Good as It Gets – OCD  

2002 – Adrien Brody – The Pianist – Musician

2004 – Jamie Fox – Ray – Musician

2009 – Jeff Bridges – Crazy Heart – Alcoholic Musician

2010 – Colin Firth – The King’s Speech – Stuttering

2013 – Matthew McConaughey – Dallas Buyers Club – Dying of AIDS.

Now… I could continue and do this for the other three acting categories… but I trust that you get my point.

And so now, after the SAG awards, I am pretty sure the four Oscar acting categories are a lock; three of which I already predicted:

Best Supporting Actor:  J. K. Simmons – Whiplash (Musician)

Best Supporting Actress:  Patricia Arquette – Boyhood (Mother of two who had been divorced three times… only to find out that her first husband was the best of the lot… mental illness?)

Best Actress:  Julianne Moore – Still Alice (Alzheimer’s disease)

Best Actor:  Eddie Redmayne – The Theory of Everything (ALS).  Going into the SAG awards I thought Michael Keaton, for Birdman, had a chance, but when Eddie won, that pretty much locked him in as the Oscar winner.  Eddie did a fantastic job portraying Stephen Hawking’s’ affliction with ALS.  And with the Ice Bucket Challenge trending this year, it is a hot topic.  I did not particularly like this movie, mainly because I did not think it was a very good biography of Stephen Hawking, but it did do a good job showing how ALS affects a family… at least from the little knowledge I have on the subject, having an aunt who passed from the disease.

Best Picture:  With Birdman winning best ensemble at the SAG awards it is now in contention for Best Picture.  Statistically Boyhood is still the favorite… but anything can happen.  It is between these two films…